Transparenz
Wie genau ist die Prognose?
Die Frage, die zählt, lautet: auf wie viele Zentimeter kann ich mich verlassen? Darum zeigen wir zuerst, wie oft unsere Vorhersage tatsächlich in einem engen Korridor landet — gemessen an jeder einzelnen Vorhersage, nicht im Durchschnitt. Darunter steht die härtere Messlatte: der Vergleich mit der Persistenz.
94% aller 24-Stunden-Vorhersagen liegen innerhalb von 10 cm, 80% sogar innerhalb von 5 cm. Gemessen über 5.316 einzelne Vorhersagen an 247 Pegeln. Unser Konfidenzband trifft gemessen in ~82% der Fälle.
94%
24 Stunden · innerhalb 10 cm
±5 cm: 80% · ±20 cm: 99%
vs. Persistenz: 0%
88%
48 Stunden · innerhalb 10 cm
±5 cm: 70% · ±20 cm: 96%
vs. Persistenz: 0%
83%
72 Stunden · innerhalb 10 cm
±5 cm: 65% · ±20 cm: 94%
vs. Persistenz: 0%
Datenbasis: 247 Stationen mit ≥ 20 Validierungspunkten. Davon 219 an die Persistenz „gepinnt“ (unser Modell schlägt sie nicht — offen als = Pers. markiert) und 106 gestaute Pegel ohne echte Dynamik. Skill = 1 − MAE/Persistenz-MAE. Die Korridor-Werte zählen jede einzelne Vorhersage, die höchstens um den angegebenen Betrag danebenlag — ein Skill nahe 0 % heißt also nicht „unbrauchbar“, sondern „so gut wie die Annahme, dass sich nichts ändert“, was auf ruhigen Pegeln eine hohe Messlatte ist.
Genauigkeit nach Vorlauf
Was zeigte die App vor 1, 2 … 10 Tagen für einen Zeitpunkt — und wie weit lag das daneben? Echte archivierte Prognosen, keine Rückrechnung.
| Vorlauf | RiverPulse | RLP | HVZ | BfG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 T | 5,3 cm Skill +1%, n 44.793 h Ø-Vorlauf 26 h | 5,4 cm Skill +36%, n 7.829 h Ø-Vorlauf 30 h | 7,2 cm Skill +4%, n 5.460 h Ø-Vorlauf 28 h | 6,0 cm Skill +43%, n 3.593 h Ø-Vorlauf 36 h |
| 2 T | 8,1 cm Skill +8%, n 27.001 h Ø-Vorlauf 50 h | — | 9,2 cm Skill +7%, n 4.330 h Ø-Vorlauf 52 h | 7,8 cm Skill +49%, n 3.425 h Ø-Vorlauf 60 h |
| 3 T | 10,2 cm Skill +16%, n 13.521 h Ø-Vorlauf 74 h | — | 10,4 cm Skill +1%, n 4.002 h Ø-Vorlauf 76 h | 9,2 cm Skill +51%, n 2.825 h Ø-Vorlauf 82 h |
| 4 T | 11,2 cm Skill +9%, n 10.276 h Ø-Vorlauf 98 h | — | 11,2 cm Skill -0%, n 3.807 h Ø-Vorlauf 100 h | — |
| 5 T | 11,9 cm Skill +14%, n 8.658 h Ø-Vorlauf 122 h | — | 11,3 cm Skill +9%, n 3.612 h Ø-Vorlauf 124 h | — |
| 6 T | 11,9 cm Skill +16%, n 8.190 h Ø-Vorlauf 146 h | — | 10,9 cm Skill +11%, n 3.420 h Ø-Vorlauf 148 h | — |
| 7 T | 11,9 cm Skill +9%, n 7.778 h Ø-Vorlauf 170 h | — | 10,6 cm Skill +3%, n 3.228 h Ø-Vorlauf 172 h | — |
| 8 T | 12,1 cm Skill +12%, n 7.370 h Ø-Vorlauf 194 h | — | 10,8 cm Skill +2%, n 3.036 h Ø-Vorlauf 196 h | — |
| 9 T | 14,7 cm Skill +7%, n 6.453 h Ø-Vorlauf 218 h | — | 12,3 cm Skill -4%, n 2.706 h Ø-Vorlauf 220 h | — |
| 10 T | 17,5 cm Skill +8%, n 3.870 h Ø-Vorlauf 242 h | — | 9,8 cm Skill -4%, n 473 h Ø-Vorlauf 244 h | — |
Fairer Vergleich auf gleichen Pegeln und Tagen
| Amtlich | Vorlauf | Pegel | MAE amtlich | MAE RiverPulse | Differenz |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RLP | 1 T | 15 | 5,5 cm n 7.701 h | 5,9 cm n 8.141 h | +0,4 cm |
| HVZ | 1 T | 10 | 7,2 cm n 5.416 h | 9,0 cm n 5.791 h | +1,8 cm |
| HVZ | 2 T | 10 | 9,3 cm n 4.296 h | 10,1 cm n 4.621 h | +0,8 cm |
| HVZ | 3 T | 8 | 10,4 cm n 4.002 h | 10,4 cm n 4.183 h | ±0,0 cm |
| HVZ | 4 T | 8 | 11,2 cm n 3.807 h | 11,9 cm n 3.990 h | +0,7 cm |
| HVZ | 5 T | 8 | 11,3 cm n 3.612 h | 11,9 cm n 3.798 h | +0,6 cm |
| HVZ | 6 T | 8 | 10,9 cm n 3.420 h | 11,4 cm n 3.606 h | +0,5 cm |
| HVZ | 7 T | 8 | 10,6 cm n 3.228 h | 10,5 cm n 3.414 h | −0,1 cm |
| HVZ | 8 T | 8 | 10,8 cm n 3.036 h | 11,1 cm n 3.222 h | +0,3 cm |
| HVZ | 9 T | 8 | 12,3 cm n 2.706 h | 13,3 cm n 2.530 h | +1,0 cm |
| HVZ | 10 T | 8 | 9,8 cm n 467 h | 9,8 cm n 392 h | ±0,0 cm |
| BfG | 1 T | 7 | 6,0 cm n 3.593 h | 7,1 cm n 3.678 h | +1,1 cm |
| BfG | 2 T | 7 | 7,8 cm n 3.425 h | 10,2 cm n 3.510 h | +2,4 cm |
| BfG | 3 T | 7 | 9,2 cm n 2.701 h | 11,4 cm n 2.315 h | +2,2 cm |
Differenz = Ø-Fehler RiverPulse minus Ø-Fehler der amtlichen Quelle; grün (−) heißt: RiverPulse lag näher dran. Verglichen werden nur Pegel und Tage, an denen beide Seiten bewertet wurden — nicht zwingend dieselben Stunden.
Archiv seit 04.10.2026 (BfG seit 10.10.2026); ausgewertet sind die Zieltage 05.10.2026 bis 01.11.2026. Lange Vorläufe sind deshalb noch dünn belegt; unter 24 Stunden zeigen wir keinen Wert.
Ø-Vorlauf: Tagesausgaben (RLP, BfG) laufen im Mittel länger vor als die mehrmals täglich erzeugten Läufe — ein „2 T“-Wert ist dort im Schnitt älter als bei RiverPulse.
HVZ liefert ab etwa einem Tag Vorlauf überwiegend „Abschätzung“ (Tendenz). RLP gibt nur 1 Tag Vorlauf her, BfG bis zu 3 Tage.
RiverPulse ist an vielen Pegeln auf die amtliche Prognose gepinnt — dort ist es dieselbe Kurve. Persistenz heißt: der Pegel bleibt, wie er bei Ausgabe der Prognose war.
Skill je Station
| Station | 24h | 48h | 72h |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIEGRIPP AP | +25% ±3 cm | -4% ±5 cm | -10% ±6 cm |
| ROTHENSEE | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm |
| MAGDEBURG-STROMBRÜCKE | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| WITTENBERG | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm |
| NIERSTEIN-OPPENHEIM | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| SCHÖNEBECK | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| MAGDEBURG-BUCKAU | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm |
| ELSTER | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm |
| BODENHEIM | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±13 cm |
| MANNHEIM | +4% ±4 cm | +2% ±12 cm | +1% ±15 cm |
| STORKAU | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| VOCKERODE | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| BRAUBACH | +3% ±4 cm | -15% ±7 cm | -16% ±11 cm |
| TORGAU | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| PHILIPPSBURG | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| DREYE | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| FÜRSTENBERG UP | 0% ±1 cm | 0% ±1 cm | 0% ±1 cm |
| WITTENBERGE | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm |
| FÜRSTENWALDE OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| HAVELBERG UP | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| ALBERTSHEIM | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| RATHENOW OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| BASEL-RHEINHALLE | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| BESIGHEIM WEHR UP | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±6 cm |
| SCHWABELWEIS | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| SCHWEINFURT NEUER HAFEN | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| BINGEN | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| BOBZIN OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| BODENWERDER | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm |
| COCHEM | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| DEGGENDORF | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| DEIZISAU SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| DÖMITZ | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| EISENHÜTTENSTADT SCHL. UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| EITZE | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| GARWITZ UP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| GREVENMACHER UP | = Pers. ±14 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm | = Pers. ±13 cm |
| LIEBENAU | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| MALCHOW WEHR OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| TROTHA OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| WERNSDORF UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| FANKEL UP | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| FRANKFURT1 (ODER) | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| GEESTHACHT | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| GRÜTZ OP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| HILKENBROOK | 0% ±2 cm | 0% ±3 cm | 0% ±4 cm |
| HOFKIRCHEN | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±13 cm |
| HOHNSTORF | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| MARKLENDORF | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm |
| NEUSTADT | = Pers. ±12 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| KERSDORF UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| KLEIN LAASCH WEHR OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| RISCHMÜHLE OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| BLECKEDE | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| BOIZENBURG | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| GORLEBEN | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| GREBENAU | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| HANN.MUENDEN | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| PERL | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| STOLZENAU | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| VILSHOFEN | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| WAHMBECK | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±7 cm | 0% ±9 cm |
| DIEZ HAFEN | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| DRAKENBURG | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±12 cm | = Pers. ±12 cm |
| WINCHERINGEN | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| ALSLEBEN OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| ALSLEBEN UP | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| ANDERNACH | 0% ±5 cm | 0% ±10 cm | 0% ±12 cm |
| DRESDEN | 0% ±6 cm | 0% ±8 cm | 0% ±11 cm |
| GUNDELSHEIM UP | = Pers. ±21 cm | = Pers. ±13 cm | = Pers. ±21 cm |
| VOSSWINKEL OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | — | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| HÖXTER | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| PFATTER | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±3 cm |
| RÜHLE | 0% ±2 cm | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±3 cm |
| STÜTZKOW | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm |
| ZELTINGEN UP | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| ALLENDORF | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| ARTLENBURG | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| PLAUE UP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| RHEINE UNTERSCHLEUSE | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| SCHWEDT-ODERBRÜCKE | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| TRUNSTADT | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| VERSEN WEHRDURCHSTICH | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| WAREN | 0% ±1 cm | 0% ±1 cm | 0% ±1 cm |
| WERTHEIM | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| WETTIN OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| WUSTERWITZ OP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| KADE | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| KAUB | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±7 cm | -2% ±13 cm |
| STEINBACH | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| DUISBURG-RUHRORT | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| HAVELBERG EP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| LAHNSTEIN SCHLEUSE UP | 0% ±5 cm | 0% ±10 cm | 0% ±13 cm |
| LAUFFEN | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| MÜDEN UP | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| HESSIGHEIM SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| HITZACKER | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| LISDORF UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| MAINFLINGEN | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| LENZEN | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| LEWITZ OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| LIMBURG SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| NEUWERBEN EP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| OBERESSLINGEN SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| OBERTÜRKHEIM SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| PARCHIM GÜTE | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| PFELLING | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| PLEIDELSHEIM SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| PLOCHINGEN | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| QUITZÖBEL OP | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm |
| RATHENOW UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| RETHEM | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| ROTHENBURG OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| ROTHENBURG UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| ROSSLAU | 0% ±3 cm | +8% ±4 cm | +14% ±4 cm |
| RUST | = Pers. ±0 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| ESSLINGEN SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | — | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| FÜRSTENWALDE UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| PRETZSCH-MAUKEN | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| AKEN | = Pers. ±4 cm | — | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| BARBY | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| BARKOW OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| ALDINGEN SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| ASTHEIM | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm |
| AHLDEN | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| BEIHINGEN WEHR UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| BESIGHEIM SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| BESIGHEIM SKA | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| BONN | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| BOPPARD | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±8 cm | 0% ±14 cm |
| BREISACH | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| CANNSTATT SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| DAMNATZ | 0% ±2 cm | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±6 cm |
| DESSAU | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| DETZEM UP | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| EMMERICH | = Pers. ±5 cm | — | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| EISENHÜTTENSTADT SCHL. OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| ENKIRCH UP | 0% ±6 cm | 0% ±8 cm | 0% ±5 cm |
| ESSLINGEN WEHR OP | = Pers. ±3 cm | — | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| FAULBACH | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| FREMERSDORF | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| FRIEDRICHSTHAL | = Pers. ±12 cm | = Pers. ±16 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| FÜRSTENBERG OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| GARZ OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| GARZ UP | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| DÖRVERDEN | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| DÜSSELDORF | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±13 cm |
| GENTHIN | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| GRÜTZ UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| GNEVSDORF EP | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm |
| GUNTERSHAUSEN | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| HANWEILER | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| HAVELBERG STADT | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| HOFEN SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| GNEVSDORF OP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| HOHENSAATEN-FINOW | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| HORKHEIM WEHR UP | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm | = Pers. ±16 cm |
| IFFEZHEIM | 0% ±13 cm | 0% ±14 cm | 0% ±13 cm |
| INTSCHEDE | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm |
| KALKOFEN NEU | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| KEHL-KRONENHOF | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±6 cm | 0% ±5 cm |
| KELHEIMWINZER | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| KERSDORF OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| KIENITZ | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| HOHENSAATEN WEST AP | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| HOHENSAATEN WEST BP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| HOYA | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| MARBACH SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| KLEINHEUBACH | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| KOBLENZ | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±9 cm | 0% ±11 cm |
| KÖLN | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±12 cm |
| MARBACH WEHR UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm |
| KROTZENBURG | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| LINGEN-DARME | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±13 cm |
| MAINZ | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±12 cm |
| MAXAU | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| MEISSEN | 0% ±5 cm | 0% ±7 cm | 0% ±10 cm |
| LAUFFEN SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| NEUBURG OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| NIENBURG | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±18 cm |
| NEUSTADT GLEWE OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | — |
| OBERESSLINGEN WEHR UP | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| OBERNAU | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| OBERNDORF | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| OBERWINTER | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm |
| OESTRICH | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm |
| PETERSHAGEN | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm |
| MÜGGENDORF | = Pers. ±4 cm | — | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| NEU DARCHAU | = Pers. ±2 cm | — | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| PORTA | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm |
| PLAU UP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| QUITZÖBEL UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| RATZDORF | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| REES | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±12 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| REHLINGEN UP | = Pers. ±4 cm | — | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| RHEINWEILER | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| RIESA | 0% ±5 cm | 0% ±7 cm | 0% ±10 cm |
| PIRNA | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| PLAU OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| PLITTERSDORF | = Pers. ±12 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm | = Pers. ±13 cm |
| RÖPZIG | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| ROGÄTZ | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| ROTENBURG | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| SANDAU | 0% ±2 cm | +11% ±3 cm | +11% ±6 cm |
| SANKT ALDEGUND UP | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm |
| SANKT ARNUAL | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| SCHARLEUK | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±8 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| SCHNACKENBURG | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm |
| SCHWARMSTEDT | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| SCHWEDT SCHLEUSE BP | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±16 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| RISCHMÜHLE UP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| ROCKENAU SKA | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| RUWER | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| TIECKOW | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| STADTBREDIMUS UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| TRIER UP | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| TROTHA UP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| UNTERTÜRKHEIM SCHLEUSE UP | = Pers. ±3 cm | — | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| VELSDORF | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| SPEYER | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±10 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| TANGERMÜNDE | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±6 cm |
| WESEL | = Pers. ±7 cm | = Pers. ±12 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| WARNAU POLDER | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| WERNSDORF OP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| WESENBERG OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| WESENBERG UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| WETTIN UP | 0% ±2 cm | 0% ±3 cm | 0% ±4 cm |
| WINTRICH UP | = Pers. ±6 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| WORMS | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±11 cm | = Pers. ±14 cm |
| VOSSWINKEL UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | — | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| WUSTERWITZ UP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| WÜRZBURG | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| KIETZ | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm |
| NIEDERFINOW SHW OP | = Pers. ±1 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm |
| NIEDERFINOW SHW UP | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±1 cm |
| TRÜBENGRABEN POLDER | 0% ±4 cm | 0% ±5 cm | 0% ±7 cm |
| WESTSPANGE | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±2 cm | = Pers. ±3 cm |
| SCHMITTLOTHEIM | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±5 cm |
| SANKT GOAR | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±9 cm | = Pers. ±15 cm |
| RINTELN | = Pers. ±4 cm | — | = Pers. ±9 cm |
| HELDRA | = Pers. ±3 cm | = Pers. ±4 cm | = Pers. ±7 cm |
| KARLSHAFEN | -323% ±17 cm | -205% ±26 cm | -169% ±25 cm |
| FLAESHEIM SCHLEUSE UW | = Pers. ±0 cm | = Pers. ±0 cm | = Pers. ±0 cm |
| Kitzingen | — ±12 cm | — ±14 cm | — ±15 cm |
| VLOTHO | — | — | = Pers. ±8 cm |
| OTTENHEIM | = Pers. ±0 cm | = Pers. ±0 cm | = Pers. ±0 cm |
| HALDENSLEBEN | — | = Pers. ±0 cm | = Pers. ±0 cm |
Lesehilfe: „+20%“ auf 24h heißt: Unsere Vorhersage war im Schnitt 20% näher am später gemessenen Wert als die simple Annahme „morgen wie heute“. „= Pers.“ heißt: an dieser Station schlagen wir die Persistenz (noch) nicht und servieren sie ehrlich statt zu raten. Die ±cm-Zeile darunter ist die absolute Abweichung.
Methodik: rollierendes Backtesting unserer Upstream-Korrelations- und OLS-Modelle gegen die WSV-Messreihen; Blend-Gewichte und Konfidenzbänder werden wöchentlich pro Stationsklasse aus genau diesen Backtests gefittet. Details in der Methodik.